Fiorentino, Dario; Akimova, Anna; Núñez-Riboni, Ismael; Gröger, Matthias; Becherer, Johannes; Oesterwind, Daniel; Pierce, Maria E: Climate-driven changes in fish habitat in the North and Baltic Seas: historical decadal changes and future projections [dataset]. PANGAEA, https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.969374 (dataset in review)
Abstract:
The data contain habitat suitability (given in %) and biomass (given in tons) of commercial fish species in the North Sea and Baltic Sea. For the North Sea, habitat suitability is shown for the 1970s and as a change in response to climate change across decades from 1970 to 2050. For the Baltic Sea, habitat suitability is shown for the 1990s and as a change in response to climate change across decades from 1990 to 2050. Habitat suitability was estimated using a species distribution model (TIMoFiD, Thünen-Institute Model of Fish Distribution). The model used fish abundance and environmental data collected during the ICES-coordinated International Bottom Trawl Survey over 51 years (https://www.ices.dk/data/data-portals/Pages/DATRAS.aspx). Temperature data used for model fitting were retrieved from AHOI (https://www.thuenen.de/en/institutes/sea-fisheries/projects/a-physical-statistical-model-of-hydrography-for-fishery-and-ecology-studies-ahoi), whereas those used for projections were retrieved from MPIOM (Max Planck Institute Ocean Model), for the North Sea, and MOM (https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/mom-ocean-model/), for the Baltic Sea (both under the climate scenario RCP8.5). Biomass distribution in 2050 was mapped according to habitat suitability as redistribution of three scenarios of total biomass (high, medium and low). Those scenarios were retrieved based ICES Stock assessment time-series (https://www.ices.dk/data/assessment-tools/Pages/stock-assessment-graphs.aspx).
Source:
Amante, Christopher; Eakins, Barry W (2009): ETOPO1 1 Arc-Minute Global Relief Model: Procedures, Data Sources and Analysis. NOAA Technical Memorandum NESDIS NGDC-24. National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA, https://doi.org/10.7289/V5C8276M
ICES (2022): ICES International Bottom Trawl Survey data (1965-2021 for the North Sea , 1990-2021 for the Baltic Sea) [webpage]. Database of Trawl Surveys (DATRAS), extracted August 2022. Copenhagen, Denmark: International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES), https://www.ices.dk/data/data-portals/Pages/DATRAS.aspx (DATRAS (2022))
Mayer, Bernhard; Mathis, Moritz; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Pohlmann, Thomas (2022): RCP8.5-projected changes in German Bight storm surge characteristics from regionalized ensemble simulations for the end of the twenty-first century. Frontiers in Climate, 4, 992119, https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.992119 (Mayer et al. (2022a))
Mayer, Bernhard; Mathis, Moritz; Pohlmann, Thomas (2022): Effects of climate change on extreme sea levels in the North Sea (ECCES): regionalized MPIOM-REMO climate ensemble [dataset]. World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ, https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/ECCES_MPIOM-REMO (Mayer et al. (2022b))
Neumann, Thomas; Koponen, Sampsa; Attila, Jenni; Brockmann, Carsten; Kallio, Kari; Kervinen, Mikko; Mazeran, Constant; Müller, Dagmar; Philipson, Petra; Thulin, Susanne; Väkevä, Sakari; Ylöstalo, Pasi (2021): Optical model for the Baltic Sea with an explicit CDOM state variable: a case study with Model ERGOM (version 1.2). Geoscientific Model Development, 14(8), 5049-5062, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5049-2021
Neumann, Thomas; Radtke, Hagen; Cahill, Bronwyn; Schmidt, Martin; Rehder, Gregor (2022): Non-Redfieldian carbon model for the Baltic Sea (ERGOM version 1.2) – implementation and budget estimates. Geoscientific Model Development, 15(22), 8473-8540, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8473-2022
Núñez-Riboni, Ismael; Akimova, Anna (2015): Monthly maps of optimally interpolated in situ hydrography in the North Sea from 1948 to 2013. Journal of Marine Systems, 151, 15-34, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2015.06.003
References:
Edelsbrunner, H; Kirkpatrick, D; Seidel, R (1983): On the shape of a set of points in the plane. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 29(4), 551-559, https://doi.org/10.1109/TIT.1983.1056714
Guisan, Antoine; Thuiller, Wilfried; Zimmermann, Niklaus E (2017): Habitat Suitability and Distribution Models. Cambridge University Press, 462, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781139028271
Hastie, Trevor; Tibshirani, Robert (1986): Generalized Additive Models. Statistical Science, 1(3), 297-310, https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1177013604
Hastie, Trevor; Tibshirani, Robert (1993): Varying-Coefficient Models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B-Statistical Methodology, 55(4), 757-779, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1993.tb01939.x
Hastie, Trevor; Tibshirani, Robert; Friedman, Jerome (2009): The Elements of Statistical Learning - Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction. 2nd ed. Springer Series in Statistics. New York, NY: Springer, 745, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-84858-7
Horn, Berthold K P (1981): Hill shading and the reflectance map. Proceedings of the IEEE, 69(1), 14-47, https://doi.org/10.1109/PROC.1981.11918
MacCall, Alec D (1990): Dynamic geography of marine fish populations. Washington Sea Grant Program, 153, https://www.academia.edu/18757267/DYNAMIC_GEOGRAPHY_OF_MARINE_FISH_POPULATIONS
Nelder, J A; Wedderburn, R W M (1972): Generalized Linear Models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-General, 135(3), 370-384, https://doi.org/10.2307/2344614
Núñez-Riboni, Ismael; Akimova, Anna; Sell, Anne F (2021): Effect of data spatial scale on the performance of fish habitat models. Fish and Fisheries, 22(5), 955-973, https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12563
Núñez-Riboni, Ismael; Taylor, Marc H; Kempf, Alexander; Püts, Miriam; Mathis, Moritz (2019): Spatially resolved past and projected changes of the suitable thermal habitat of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) under climate change. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 76(7), 2389-2403, https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsz132
Pinsky, Malin L; Eikeset, Anne Maria; McCauley, Douglas J; Payne, Jonathan L; Sunday, Jennifer M (2019): Greater vulnerability to warming of marine versus terrestrial ectotherms. Nature, 569(7754), 108-111, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1132-4
Randin, Christophe F; Dirnböck, Thomas; Dullinger, Stefan; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Zappa, Massimiliano; Guisan, Antoine (2006): Are niche‐based species distribution models transferable in space? Journal of Biogeography, 33(10), 1689-1703, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01466.x
Rutterford, Louise A; Simpson, Stephen D; Bogstad, Bjarte; Devine, Jennifer A; Genner, Martin J (2023): Sea temperature is the primary driver of recent and predicted fish community structure across Northeast Atlantic shelf seas. Global Change Biology, 29(9), 2510-2521, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16633
Tweedie, Maurice Charles Kenneth (1984): An index which distinguishes between some important exponential families. In: Ghosh, J K, Roy, J (eds.) Statistics: Applications and New Directions. Proceedings of the Indian Statistical Institute Golden Jubilee International Conference, Indian Statistical Institute, Calcutta, 579-604
Wood, Simon N (2017): Generalized Additive Models. 2nd ed. New York, NY: Chapman and Hall/CRC, 496, https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315370279
Documentation:
Fiorentino, Dario; Núñez-Riboni, Ismael; Oesterwind, Daniel; Pierce, Maria E; Akimova, Anna (2024): Technical report - Climate-driven changes in fish habitat in the North and Baltic Seas: historical decadal changes and future projections. Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries, Documentation.pdf (READ ME - DETAILED REPORT)
Funding:
Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), grant/award no. 03F0911F: DAM sustainMare - CoastalFutures, Thünen
Coverage:
Median Latitude: 56.250000 * Median Longitude: 9.350000 * South-bound Latitude: 51.200000 * West-bound Longitude: -3.900000 * North-bound Latitude: 61.000000 * East-bound Longitude: 21.500000
Date/Time Start: 1970-01-01T00:00:00 * Date/Time End: 2050-12-31T00:00:00
Event(s):
Baltic_Sea_fish_1990-2050_modeled (Fish distribution in the Baltic Sea 1990-2050) * Latitude Start: 58.400000 * Longitude Start: 10.100000 * Latitude End: 54.400000 * Longitude End: 21.500000 * Date/Time Start: 1990-01-01T00:00:00 * Date/Time End: 2050-12-31T00:00:00 * Method/Device: Thünen-Institute Model of Fish Distribution (TIMoFiD)
North_Sea_fish_1970-2050_modeled (Fish distribution in the North Sea 1970-2050) * Latitude Start: 61.000000 * Longitude Start: -3.900000 * Latitude End: 51.200000 * Longitude End: 9.700000 * Date/Time Start: 1970-01-01T00:00:00 * Date/Time End: 2050-12-31T00:00:00 * Method/Device: Thünen-Institute Model of Fish Distribution (TIMoFiD)
Comment:
* Data can be viewed using the web-map available at Thünen Atlas (https://atlas.thuenen.de/maps/286/view#/).
* Read the attached documentation (pdf) for details and description of the method used.
Parameter(s):
| # | Name | Short Name | Unit | Principal Investigator | Method/Device | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Event label | Event | Fiorentino, Dario | |||
| 2 | Area/locality | Area | Fiorentino, Dario | |||
| 3 | File content | Content | Fiorentino, Dario | |||
| 4 | CSV text file | CSV | Fiorentino, Dario | Thünen-Institute Model of Fish Distribution (TIMoFiD) | ||
| 5 | Documentation file | DOCS | Fiorentino, Dario |
License:
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC-BY-4.0) (License comes into effect after moratorium ends)
Status:
Curation Level: Enhanced curation (CurationLevelC)
Size:
8 data points