Citation:

j.ecolmodel.2016.08.003

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Abstract:

Siberian boreal forests are expected to expand northwards in the course of global warming. However, processes of the treeline ecotone transition, as well astiming and related climate feedbacks are still not understood. Here, we present 'Larix Vegetation Simulator' LAVESI, an individual-based spatially-explicit model that can simulate Larix gmelinii (RUPR.) RUPR. stand dynamics in an attempt to improve our understanding about past and future treeline movements under changing climates. The relevant processes (growth, seed production and dispersal, establishment and mortality) are incorporated and adjusted to observation data mainly gained from the literature. Results of a local sensitivity analysis support the robustness of the model's parameterization by giving relatively small sensitivity values. We tested the model by simulating tree stands under modern climate across the whole Taymyr Peninsula, north-central Siberia (c. 64-80° N; 92-119° E). We find tree densities similar to observed forests in the northern to mid-treeline areas, but densities are overestimated in the southern parts of the simulated region. Finally, from a temperature-forcing experiment, we detect that the responses of tree stands lag the hypothetical warming by several decades, until the end of 21st century. With our simulation experiments we demonstrate that the newly-developed model captures the dynamics of the Siberian latitudinal treeline.

Related to:

Harris, Ian; Jones, Philip D; Osborn, Timothy J; Lister, David (2014): Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - the CRU TS3.10 Dataset. International Journal of Climatology, 34(3), 623-642, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711

Project(s):

Permafrost Research (Periglacial Dynamics) @ AWI (AWI_PerDyn)

Coverage:

Latitude: 75.500000 * Longitude: 106.900000

Event(s):

Taymyr_peninsula * Latitude: 75.500000 * Longitude: 106.900000

Comment:

Stand densities and modeled population dynamics as trees per ha (mean and standard deviation for 10-30 simulation repeats) are interpolated over yearly mean temperatures and precipitation sums of years 1960-1990. Simulations were performed with the individual-based model LAVESI using weather data on the Taymyr Peninsula (63.75-79.75° N and 91.75-118.75° E at a 0.5° latitude and longitude resolution) from CRU TS 3.22 (Harris et al., 2014).

Parameter(s):

#	Name	Short Name	Unit	Principal Investigator	Comment
1	File content	Content		Herzschuh, Ulrike
2	File name	File name		Herzschuh, Ulrike
3	File format	File format		Herzschuh, Ulrike
4	File size	File size	kByte	Herzschuh, Ulrike	zipped
5	Uniform resource locator/link to file	URL file		Herzschuh, Ulrike

License:

Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported (CC-BY-3.0)

Size:

20 data points

Data

Download dataset as tab-delimited text — use the following character encoding:

1 Content	2 File name	3 File format	4 File size [kByte]	5 URL file
(Figure 6) Stand densities of trees from simulated populations at five sites at year 2011 at the treeline on the Taymyr Peninsula	LAVESI_figure6	Tab-separated values	0.793	LAVESI_figure6.zip
(Figure 7) Simulated number of trees at year 2011 for the Taymyr Peninsula	LAVESI_figure7	Tab-separated values	25.391	LAVESI_figure7.zip
(Figure 8a) Population dynamics of simulated tree stands forced by abruptly changed temperatures	LAVESI_figure8a	Tab-separated values	73.178	LAVESI_figure8a.zip
(Figure 8b) Population dynamics of simulated tree stands forced by incrementally changed temperatures	LAVESI_figure8b	Tab-separated values	74.129	LAVESI_figure8b.zip