Jerosch, Kerstin; Scharf, Frauke Katharina; Deregibus, Dolores; Campana, Gabriela L; Zacher-Aued, Katharina; Pehlke, Hendrik; Abele, Doris; Quartino, Maria Liliana (2015): Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica [dataset publication series]. PANGAEA, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.854410, Supplement to: Jerosch, K et al. (in prep.): The potential macroalgae habitat shifts in an Antarctic Peninsula fjord due to climate change.
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Abstract:
Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.
Project(s):
Funding:
German Research Foundation (DFG), grant/award no. 5472008: Priority Programme 1158 Antarctic Research with Comparable Investigations in Arctic Sea Ice Areas
Coverage:
Latitude: -62.233330 * Longitude: -58.666660
Comment:
Subproject: JE 680/1-1
License:
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported (CC-BY-3.0)
Size:
2 datasets
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Datasets listed in this publication series
- Jerosch, K; Scharf, FK; Deregibus, D et al. (2015): Ensemble prediction distribution maps (probability of occurrence) of macroalgae in Potter Cove, for current conditions and four climate change scenarios, with links to GeoTIFFs. https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.854409
- Jerosch, K; Scharf, FK; Deregibus, D et al. (2015): High resolution bathymetric compilation for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica, with links to data in ArcGIS format. https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.853593