Citation:

j.gloplacha.2013.01.005

Name: Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China
Published: 2013-02-20
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

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Published: 2013-02-20 • DOI registered: 2013-03-20

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Abstract:

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

Comment:

The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces in China.

Parameter(s):

#	Name	Short Name	Unit	Principal Investigator	Comment
1	Identification	ID		Chen, Yongfu
2	Number of years	Years	a	Chen, Yongfu	Average education years of farm household
3	Population density	Pop dens	#/km²	Chen, Yongfu
4	Distance	Distance	km	Chen, Yongfu	Radial distance from village to the provincial capital
5	Soil type	Soil type		Chen, Yongfu	1: ferrallitic
6	Soil type	Soil type		Chen, Yongfu	2: alfisol
7	Soil type	Soil type		Chen, Yongfu	3: semi-luvisols
8	Soil type	Soil type		Chen, Yongfu	4: pedocal
9	Soil type	Soil type		Chen, Yongfu	5: xerosol
10	Soil type	Soil type		Chen, Yongfu	6: desert
11	Soil type	Soil type		Chen, Yongfu	7: primitive
12	Soil type	Soil type		Chen, Yongfu	8: semi-hydromorphic
13	Soil type	Soil type		Chen, Yongfu	9: hydromorphic
14	Soil type	Soil type		Chen, Yongfu	10: alkaline saline
15	Soil type	Soil type		Chen, Yongfu	11: anthropic
16	Soil type	Soil type		Chen, Yongfu	12: alpine
17	Code	Code		Chen, Yongfu	scode
18	Temperature, spring	T spr	°C	Chen, Yongfu
19	Temperature, summer	T sum	°C	Chen, Yongfu
20	Temperature, autumn	T aut	°C	Chen, Yongfu
21	Temperature, winter	T win	°C	Chen, Yongfu
22	Precipitation, spring	Precip spr	mm/month	Chen, Yongfu
23	Precipitation, summer	Precip summer	mm/month	Chen, Yongfu
24	Precipitation, autumn	Precip aut	mm/month	Chen, Yongfu
25	Precipitation, winter	Precip wint	mm/month	Chen, Yongfu
26	Index	Index		Chen, Yongfu	Multiple crop
27	Ratio	Ratio		Chen, Yongfu	of irrigated areas to total cultivated areas of farm household
28	Exchange rate	Exch rate		Chen, Yongfu	Chinese Renminbi against the 2009 USD was 6.831 Yuan per USD (i.e., period average) from China Statistical Yearbook 2010
29	Net crop revenue per unit area	Crop niusd	USD/ha/a	Chen, Yongfu
30	Latitude, median	Latitude med		Chen, Yongfu

License:

Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported (CC-BY-3.0)

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