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Sensitivity of potential natural vegetation in China to projected changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2

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An Erratum to this article was published on 27 March 2011

Abstract

A sensitivity study was performed to investigate the responses of potential natural vegetation distribution in China to the separate and combined effects of temperature, precipitation and [CO2], using the process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME4. The model shows a generally good agreement with a map of the potential natural vegetation distribution based on a numerical comparison using the ΔV statistic (ΔV = 0.25). Mean temperature of each month was increased uniformly by 0–5 K, in 0.5- or 1-K intervals. Mean precipitation of each month was increased and decreased uniformly by 0–30%, in 10% intervals. The analyses were run at fixed CO2 concentrations of 360 and 720 ppm. Temperature increases shifted most forest boundaries northward and westward, expanded the distribution of xeric biomes, and confined the tundra to progressively higher elevations. Precipitation increases led to a greater area occupied by mesic biomes at the expense of xeric biomes. Most vegetation types in the temperate regions, and on the Tibetan Plateau, expanded westward into the dry continental interior with increasing precipitation. Precipitation decreases had opposite effects. The modelled effect of CO2 doubling was to partially compensate for the negative effect of drought on the mesic biomes and to increase potential ecosystem carbon storage by about 40%. Warming tended to counteract this effect, by reducing soil carbon storage. Forest biomes showed substantial resilience to climate change, especially when the effects of increasing [CO2] were taken into account. Savannas, dry woodland and tundra biomes proved sensitive to temperature increases. The transition region of grassland and forest, and the Tibetan plateau, was the most vulnerable region.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by a National Basic Research Program of China (2010CB951303) and a key project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (30590383). We thank Ke Guo from Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Science (CAS), for providing the digitized vegetation map of China, Yecheng Yuan from Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS and Daniel Foster from the Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University for technical advice and support, and the China Scholarship Council (CSC) for supporting H.W. to study at Macquarie University. We also appreciate two reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions to improve an earlier version of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiangshan Nanxincun 20, 100093, Beijing, China

    Han Wang & Jian Ni

  2. Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW, 2109, Australia

    Han Wang & Ian Colin Prentice

  3. Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A43, 14473, Potsdam, Germany

    Jian Ni

  4. Grantham Institute and Division of Biology, Imperial College, Silwood Park, Ascot, SL5 7PY, UK

    Ian Colin Prentice

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  1. Han Wang
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Correspondence to Han Wang.

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An erratum to this article can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-011-0217-x

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Wang, H., Ni, J. & Prentice, I.C. Sensitivity of potential natural vegetation in China to projected changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 . Reg Environ Change 11, 715–727 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-011-0204-2

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