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The impact of carbon dioxide removal on temperature parameters over West Africa

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Abstract

Removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide is being considered a suitable option for reducing the recent global rise in atmospheric temperature. The impact of the removal on some climate parameters—near-surface air temperature (TAS), maximum near-surface air temperature (TASMAX), minimum near-surface air temperature (TASMIN) and surface temperature (TS) over West Africa was assessed in this paper. We used CNRM-ESM1-C1 model simulation output consisting of 1%yr−1 CO2 removal from the atmosphere which was compared with CRU observational dataset. Four climatological periods 1990–2019 (reference period), 2040–2069, 2070–2099 and 2100–2129 were considered, and hence the impacts levels in each of the two West African regions, Sahel and Guinea, were estimated in each period with respect to the reference period. The comparison with CRU demonstrated that CNRM-ESM1-C1 model captured temperature variations within major locations in Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Senegal with an indication of an underestimation of temperature at locations above 18° N. The value of each parameter was projected to decrease progressively the periods and much impacts were also projected in the last period for the two regions. Time of retreat to 2 °C reduction target is projected a decade before the year 2100 and will occur earlier with greater impact in the Guinea region than in Sahel region. The root mean square deviation of each ensemble member was found at RMSD < 0.5 with respect to the model ensemble mean per parameter, although RMSD > 0.5 was found with GFDL-ESM4 model for TAS and TS.

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Data availability

The CDRMIP datasets analysed during this study are available on the ESGF (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/) and free to download. The data can be found by searching for the experiment names with some of the data property.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project leaders and steering committee who are responsible for CDRMIP and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making their model output available for use in this research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Physics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria

    E. K. Uzoma, M. O. Adeniyi & E. O. Oladiran

  2. GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany

    D. P. Keller

  3. Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Toulouse, France

    R. Séférian

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  1. E. K. Uzoma
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  2. M. O. Adeniyi
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  3. D. P. Keller
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Uzoma, E.K., Adeniyi, M.O., Keller, D.P. et al. The impact of carbon dioxide removal on temperature parameters over West Africa. Meteorol Atmos Phys 135, 55 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-023-00992-z

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