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The uncertainty of UTCI due to uncertainties in the determination of radiation fluxes derived from measured and observed meteorological data

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Abstract

In the present study, we investigate the determination accuracy of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). We study especially the UTCI uncertainties due to uncertainties in radiation fluxes, whose impacts on UTCI are evaluated via the mean radiant temperature (Tmrt). We assume “normal conditions”, which means that usual meteorological information and data are available but no special additional measurements. First, the uncertainty arising only from the measurement uncertainties of the meteorological data is determined. Here, simulations show that uncertainties between 0.4 and 2 K due to the uncertainty of just one of the meteorological input parameters may be expected. We then analyse the determination accuracy when not all radiation data are available and modelling of the missing data is required. Since radiative transfer models require a lot of information that is usually not available, we concentrate only on the determination accuracy achievable with empirical models. The simulations show that uncertainties in the calculation of the diffuse irradiance may lead to Tmrt uncertainties of up to ±2.9 K. If long-wave radiation is missing, we may expect an uncertainty of ±2 K. If modelling of diffuse radiation and of longwave radiation is used for the calculation of Tmrt, we may then expect a determination uncertainty of ±3 K. If all radiative fluxes are modelled based on synoptic observation, the uncertainty in Tmrt is ±5.9 K. Because Tmrt is only one of the four input data required in the calculation of UTCI, the uncertainty in UTCI due to the uncertainty in radiation fluxes is less than ±2 K. The UTCI uncertainties due to uncertainties of the four meteorological input values are not larger than the 6 K reference intervals of the UTCI scale, which means that UTCI may only be wrong by one UTCI scale. This uncertainty may, however, be critical at the two temperature extremes, i.e. under extreme hot or extreme cold conditions.

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Ackowledgements

This work was initiated within COST action 730: “Towards a Universal Thermal Climate Index UTCI for Assessing the Thermal Environment of the Human Being”. Through discussions at meetings throughout the years, all participants in COST730 have contributed to this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Meteorology, University of Applied life Sciences and Natural Resources, Vienna, Austria

    Philipp Weihs

  2. German Meteorological Service, Elzach, Germany

    Henning Staiger

  3. Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

    Birger Tinz

  4. National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Sofia, Bulgaria

    Ekaterina Batchvarova

  5. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

    Harald Rieder

  6. Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Payerne, Switzerland

    Laurent Vuilleumier

  7. Alfred Wegener Institut für Polar und Meeresforschung (AWI), Bremerhaven, Germany

    Marion Maturilli

  8. Meteorological Institute, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität, Freiburg, Germany

    Gerd Jendritzky

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  1. Philipp Weihs
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Correspondence to Philipp Weihs.

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Weihs, P., Staiger, H., Tinz, B. et al. The uncertainty of UTCI due to uncertainties in the determination of radiation fluxes derived from measured and observed meteorological data. Int J Biometeorol 56, 537–555 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0416-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0416-7

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