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Temperature effects on vital rates of different life stages and implications for population growth of Baltic sprat

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Abstract

Baltic sprat (Sprattus sprattus balticus S.) is a key species in the pelagic ecosystem of the Baltic Sea. Most stocks of small pelagic species are characterized by natural, fishery-independent fluctuations, which make it difficult to predict stock development. Baltic sprat recruitment is highly variable, which can partly be related to climate-driven variability in hydrographic conditions. Results from experimental studies and field observations demonstrate that a number of important life history traits of sprat are affected by temperature, especially the survival and growth of early life stages. Projected climate-driven warming may impact important processes affecting various life stages of sprat, from survival and development during the egg and larval phases to the reproductive output of adults. This study presents a stage-based matrix model approach to simulate sprat population dynamics in relation to different climate change scenarios. Data obtained from experimental studies and field observations were used to estimate and incorporate stage-specific growth and survival rates into the model. Model-based estimates of population growth rate were affected most by changes in the transition probability of the feeding larval stage at all temperatures (+0, +2, +4, +6 °C). The maximum increase in population growth rate was expected when ambient temperature was elevated by 4 °C. Coupling our stage-based model and more complex, biophysical individual-based models may reveal the processes driving these expected climate-driven changes in Baltic Sea sprat population dynamics.

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Acknowledgments

We are grateful to D. Söndgerath for an introduction to matrix modeling and to two anonymous reviewers for valuable comments on the manuscript. This research was supported by the German Science Foundation (DFG) cluster project RECONN2 #CL126/3-1 (Resolving Trophodynamic Consequences of Climate Change) within the priority program 1162 AQUASHIFT.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research (GEOMAR), Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105, Kiel, Germany

    Holger Haslob, Helena Hauss, Christoph Petereit & Catriona Clemmesen

  2. Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institute, Institute of Sea Fisheries, Palmaille 9, 22767, Hamburg, Germany

    Gerd Kraus

  3. Institute for Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science (IHF), University of Hamburg, Olbersweg 24, 22767, Hamburg, Germany

    Myron A. Peck

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  1. Holger Haslob
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  2. Helena Hauss
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  3. Christoph Petereit
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  4. Catriona Clemmesen
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  5. Gerd Kraus
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  6. Myron A. Peck
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Correspondence to Holger Haslob.

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Communicated by R. Adrian.

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Haslob, H., Hauss, H., Petereit, C. et al. Temperature effects on vital rates of different life stages and implications for population growth of Baltic sprat. Mar Biol 159, 2621–2632 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-012-1933-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-012-1933-6

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