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Five Year Prediction of the Number of Hurricanes that make United States Landfall

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Hurricanes and Climate Change

Abstract

The insurance industryis interested in five-year predictions of the number of Atlantic hurricanes which will make landfall in the United States. Here we describe a suite of models developed by Risk Management Solutions, Inc. to make such predictions. These models represent a broad spectrum of view-points to be used as a basis for an expert elicitation.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    2 By ‘interannual probability of landfall’ we mean the probability of landfall, estimated a year before the beginning of the hurricane season. Such an estimate is unconditional with respect to ENSO state, since ENSO is not predictable that far in advance.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Risk Management Solutions, London, UK

    Stephen Jewson, Enrica Bellone, Thomas Laepple, Kechi Nzerem, Shree Khare, Manuel Lonfat, Adam O’Shay, Jeremy Penzer & Katie Coughlin

  2. Alfred-Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany

    Thomas Laepple

  3. London School of Economics, London, UK

    Jeremy Penzer

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  1. Stephen Jewson
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    Thomas H. Jagger

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Jewson, S. et al. (2009). Five Year Prediction of the Number of Hurricanes that make United States Landfall. In: Elsner, J., Jagger, T. (eds) Hurricanes and Climate Change. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-09410-6_5

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