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Temporal variation of b value associated with M ∼4 earthquakes in the reservoir-triggered seismic environment of the Koyna–Warna region, Western India

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Abstract

It is generally found that the b values associated with reservoir-triggered seismicity (RTS) are higher than the regional b values in the frequency magnitude relation of earthquakes. In the present study, temporal and spatial variation of b value is investigated using a catalog of 3,000 earthquakes from August 2005 through December 2010 for the Koyna–Warna region in Western India, which is a classical site of RTS globally. It is an isolated (30 × 20 km2) zone of seismicity where earthquakes of up to M ∼5 are found to occur during phases of loading and unloading of the Koyna and Warna reservoirs situated 25 km apart. For the Warna region, it is found that low b values of 0.6–0.9 are associated with earthquakes of M ∼4 during the loading phase. The percentage correlation of the occurrence of an M ≥ 4 earthquake with a low b value outside the 1σ or 2σ level is as high as 78 %. A drastic drop in the b value of about 50 % being reported for an RTS site may be an important precursory parameter for short-term earthquake forecast in the future.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to the reviewers for the valuable suggestions. We are thankful to the Director, Prof. Mrinal K. Sen, and Dr. M. Ravi Kumar, Senior Principal Scientist, NGRI, for their constant support. The current study is supported by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Geophysical Research Institute (CSIR-NGRI), Uppal Road, Hyderabad, India

    K. Mallika, Harsh Gupta, D. Shashidhar, N. Purnachandra Rao, Amrita Yadav, Sunil Rohilla, H. V. S. Satyanarayana & D. Srinagesh

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  1. K. Mallika
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  2. Harsh Gupta
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  3. D. Shashidhar
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  4. N. Purnachandra Rao
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  5. Amrita Yadav
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  6. Sunil Rohilla
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  7. H. V. S. Satyanarayana
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  8. D. Srinagesh
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Correspondence to K. Mallika.

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Mallika, K., Gupta, H., Shashidhar, D. et al. Temporal variation of b value associated with M ∼4 earthquakes in the reservoir-triggered seismic environment of the Koyna–Warna region, Western India. J Seismol 17, 189–195 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-012-9318-3

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