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Transient simulations, empirical reconstructions and forcing mechanisms for the Mid-holocene hydrological climate in southern Patagonia

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Abstract

This study investigates the atmospheric circulation in transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (GCM) for the mid-Holocene (MH) period 7–4.5 ka BP driven with combinations of orbital, solar and greenhouse gas forcings. The focus is on southern South America. Statistical downscaling models are derived from observational data and applied to the simulations to estimate precipitation in south-eastern Patagonia during the MH. These estimates are compared with lake level estimates for Laguna Potrok Aike (LPA) from sediments. Relative to pre-industrial conditions (i.e. 1550–1850), which show extraordinarily high lake levels, the proxy-based reconstructed lake levels during the MH are lower. The downscaled simulated circulation differences indicate higher LPA precipitation during the MH from March to August, higher annual means, and reduced precipitation from September to February. Thus the reconstructed lower LPA lake levels can not be explained solely by the simulated precipitation changes. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed. Based on proxy data from southern South America hypotheses have also been proposed on the latitudinal position of the southern hemispheric westerlies (SHWs). In agreement with some of these hypotheses our simulations show an increased seasonal cycle of the latitudinal position of the SHWs during the MH, which can be explained by the orbital forcing. The simulations also show stronger SHWs over southern Patagonia during austral summer and weaker SHWs during winter. The downscaling model associates weaker SHWs with increased precipitation in the LPA region. However, this relationship is only moderate, and therefore the downscaling model does not support the assumption of a strong link between mean SHWs and precipitation over south-eastern Patagonia, which is the basis of many proxy-based hypotheses about the SHWs.

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Acknowledgments

We would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their very valuable comments on the manuscript. We thank F. Kaspar and S. Lorenz for their help with the climate model, B. Kromer and J. Flückiger for providing the solar and greenhouse gas forcing time series, respectively. Observational data were provided by the NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov.. The climate simulation was carried out on a NEC SX-6 at the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The work has been funded by the Federal Ministry of Education (BMBF) in the framework of the projects SALSA (01 LD 0034/35) and MIDHOL (01 ILD 0301).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. GKSS Research Centre, Institute for Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Str.1, 21502, Geesthacht, Germany

    Sebastian Wagner, Martin Widmann & Julie Jones

  2. Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany

    Torsten Haberzettl, Christian Ohlendorf & Bernd Zolitschka

  3. Institute of Chemistry and Dynamics of the Geosphere V, Research Centre Jülich, Jülich, Germany

    Andreas Lücke & Christoph Mayr

  4. Seminar for Geography and its Didactics, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany

    Frank Schäbitz

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  1. Sebastian Wagner
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  2. Martin Widmann
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Correspondence to Sebastian Wagner.

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Wagner, S., Widmann, M., Jones, J. et al. Transient simulations, empirical reconstructions and forcing mechanisms for the Mid-holocene hydrological climate in southern Patagonia. Clim Dyn 29, 333–355 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0229-x

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